The Autocratic Playbook
A multifaceted playbook
Aspiring autocrats and their supporters employ a range of techniques to consolidate power, meticulously dismantling democratic institutions and suppressing dissent.
Their playbook is multifaceted, often beginning with a subtle erosion of trust in existing systems and societal structures. This can involve a constant barrage of misinformation and disinformation, designed to polarize and to discredit media, the judiciary, and even electoral processes. By fostering cynicism and a sense of chaos, they create a fertile ground for their narrative of strong leadership being the only solution.
Once public trust is sufficiently weakened, autocrats often move to undermine the rule of law. This might manifest as politically motivated prosecutions, the appointment of loyalists to key judicial positions, or the outright disregard for legal precedents.
They may also seek to control the legislative branch through electoral manipulation, gerrymandering, or the co-opting of opposition figures. The goal is to ensure that no independent checks and balances can effectively challenge their authority.
Another crucial tactic is the suppression of free speech and assembly. This can range from the intimidation of journalists and activists to the outright banning of protests and the monitoring of online communications. Independent media outlets are often targeted, either through economic pressure, ownership by supporters, legal challenges, or direct censorship, replaced by state-controlled propaganda machines that amplify the autocratic narrative. The creation of a climate of fear is paramount, discouraging any form of open opposition.
Economically, autocrats often seek to consolidate control over key industries and resources, enriching their inner circle while creating a system of patronage that binds supporters to their regime. This can involve nationalization, the granting of lucrative contracts to loyalists, or the manipulation of markets to benefit cronies. Such economic leverage further stifles dissent and creates a dependency on the ruling elite.
Finally, the cultivation of a personality cult is a common feature. The autocrat is presented as a strong, indispensable leader, often with messianic qualities, who alone can protect the nation from internal and external threats. Public rituals, propaganda, and a constant flow of praise reinforce this image, while any criticism is swiftly dismissed as disloyal or treasonous. This sustained campaign of adulation aims to secure the emotional allegiance of the populace, making it difficult to imagine a future without their unwavering leadership.
A focus on societal polarisation
Societal polarisation stands as a cornerstone in the autocratic playbook, a deliberate strategy employed by authoritarian regimes to consolidate power and dismantle opposition. By exacerbating divisions within a population, autocrats weaken collective resistance, making it easier to impose their will. This tactic often involves identifying existing societal fault lines - be it ideological, economic, ethnic, or religious - and then systematically widening them.
The process typically begins with the propagation of narratives that demonize "the other”, framing disagreements as existential threats rather than legitimate differences of opinion. This can be achieved through state-controlled media, propaganda campaigns, and the manipulation of information, including the spread of misinformation and disinformation. These narratives aim to create an "us v them" mentality, fostering mistrust and animosity between different segments of society.
Furthermore, autocrats often exploit economic anxieties, social grievances, or cultural shifts to fuel discontent and pit groups against each other. They might champion one group's interests at the expense of another, thereby creating a sense of injustice and resentment that further deepens divisions. This can manifest in discriminatory policies, biased resource allocation, or the selective application of law.
The goal of this polarisation is multifaceted:
To distract from the regime's own failings: By focusing public attention on internal conflicts, autocrats divert scrutiny from their governance, corruption, or human rights abuses.
To fragment opposition: A fractured society is less capable of forming a united front against the regime. Opposing groups are too busy fighting each other to effectively challenge the authoritarian power structure.
To justify repressive measures: Once society is sufficiently polarised and the "other" is demonized, the autocrat can more easily justify cracking down on dissent, labeling it as a threat to national security or social order.
To cultivate a loyal base: By positioning themselves as the sole protectors of one polarised group against the perceived threats from another, autocrats solidify a loyal base of support, ensuring their grip on power.
To erode trust in institutions: Polarisation often undermines public trust in democratic institutions, such as the judiciary, the media, and electoral processes. This erosion of trust further destabilizes society and makes it more susceptible to authoritarian control.
Ultimately, societal polarisation is a corrosive force, meticulously engineered by autocrats to dismantle the social cohesion that underpins democratic societies. It transforms a diverse populace into warring factions, thereby paving the way for the consolidation of absolute power.
Resources
Here are some useful resources relating to the autocratic playbook.
V-Dem, which measures the progress of democracy globally and issues an annual Democracy Report - website here.
Protect Democracy US is a cross-ideological nonprofit group dedicated to defeating the authoritarian threat, building more resilient democratic institutions and protecting freedom and liberal democracy - website here.
The Atlantic magazine provides outstanding analysis through contributors such as David Frum, Anne Applebaum and Garry Kasparov - website here.
This TED talk on the autocratic playbook - watch here.
Anne Applebaum’s book Autocracy, Inc. - here.